495 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 230837
 TCDEP3
  
 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
 100 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011
  
 KENNETH IS NOW RAPIDLY WEAKENING.  MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
 THE WESTERN HALF OF THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED...LEAVING THE CENTER OF
 THE HURRICANE TO THE WEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED AND A BLEND OF THE FINAL T AND CI
 NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY
 OF 95 KT.  CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS KENNETH MOVES
 OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
 WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWERED
 FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND
 LGEM GUIDANCE.  IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF KENNETH WEAKENS EVEN
 FASTER THAN FORECAST.
  
 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE
 HURRICANE IS NO LONGER MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND THE LATEST
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/8. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE
 TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN
 SHOULD ALLOW KENNETH TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND
 MAINTAIN THAT TRACK THROUGH THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...A RIDGE IS
 EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH
 SHOULD CAUSE A SHALLOWER AND WEAKER KENNETH TO TURN BACK TO THE
 WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
 NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS.
 DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN BY DAY 5...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE
 GLOBAL MODELS.
 
 THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE DECREASED BASED ON A 0430 UTC ASCAT PASS
 THAT CAUGHT THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  23/0900Z 12.5N 116.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  23/1800Z 13.1N 117.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  24/0600Z 13.8N 119.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  24/1800Z 14.4N 120.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  25/0600Z 14.7N 122.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  26/0600Z 15.0N 127.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  27/0600Z 16.0N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI