862 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 212038
 TCDEP3
  
 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
 100 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011
  
 THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF KENNETH HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE TODAY.
 THE LARGE CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER
 THIS MORNING HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
 WITH AN EMBEDDED RAGGED EYE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED
 TO 75 KT...BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM SAB AND
 TAFB.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR AND WARM WATER ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
 STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE NEW
 OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW KENNETH ATTAINING MAJOR
 HURRICANE STATUS...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT COULD OCCUR
 TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.  AFTER 24 HOURS...GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS AND
 DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  LATER IN
 THE FORECAST PERIOD...WEAKENING SHOULD BE MORE RAPID AS WESTERLY
 SHEAR INCREASES AND KENNETH MOVES OVER WATERS LESS THAN 26 DEGREES
 CELSIUS.
  
 THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED MORE WESTWARD
 DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS STILL
 WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
 FROM MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER KENNETH
 WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IN 2-3 DAYS A MID-LATITUDE
 TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS FORECAST
 TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THAT TIME FRAME AS
 THE MODELS WHICH DEPICT A DEEPER CYCLONE SHOW A MORE POLEWARD
 MOVEMENT.  THE ECMWF WHICH INITIALIZED KENNETH UNREALISTICALLY
 WEAK...IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
 SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD TRACK OF A MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE.  SINCE
 KENNETH HAS STRENGTHENED AND BECOME A DEEPER CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL
 CONSENSUS AND THE GFS SOLUTION.
  
 SHOULD KENNETH ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...IT WOULD BE THE
 LATEST MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN THE
 SATELLITE ERA.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/2100Z 13.0N 110.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  22/0600Z 13.1N 112.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
  24H  22/1800Z 13.2N 114.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
  36H  23/0600Z 13.5N 116.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  23/1800Z 14.0N 117.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  24/1800Z 15.1N 120.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  25/1800Z 15.8N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  26/1800Z 16.0N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN