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 285 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 211439
 TCDEP3
  
 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
 700 AM PST MON NOV 21 2011
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KENNETH CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
 ORGANIZED.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED COILED BAND
 WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION.  SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT
 A RAGGED EYE IS FORMING...AND A 1141 UTC SSMIS SHOWS A NEARLY
 LOW-LEVEL CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE A
 CONSENSUS 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE
 APPEARANCE HAS FURTHER INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...SO THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 70 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A STEADY 285/12. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
 THE TRACK OF KENNETH BENDING MORE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS AS IT IS STEERED BY AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
 GULF OF MEXICO. IN 2-3 DAYS...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
 THE U.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
 WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GREATER POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD THEN RE-STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THE
 SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CAUSING THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACK
 TOWARD THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
 AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT DIVERGES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN
 THE PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES ARE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH/VERTICAL
 DEPTH OF KENNETH BEYOND 3 DAYS...WITH THE GFS FAVORING A STRONGER
 CYCLONE AND THE ECMWF DEPICTING A WEAKER VERSION. THE OFFICIAL
 TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
 THEN ADJUSTED A BIT SOUTHWARD...CONTINUING TO WEIGH THE ECMWF MORE
 LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
 ALTHOUGH KENNETH HAS ALREADY EXITED THE WARMEST WATERS OF THE
 BASIN...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE UNCLIMATOLOGICALLY
 LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BARRING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OR
 FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INNER CORE...KENNETH IS LIKELY TO REACH MAJOR
 HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT A DAY OR SO.  SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD
 COMMENCE AFTER THIS TIME AS THE WATERS GRADUALLY COOL ALONG ITS
 PATH.  A FASTER WEAKENING...PERHAPS MORE THAN INDICATED HERE...IS
 EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD ONCE KENNETH REACHES WATERS OF 25-26C
 AND WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL/FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THROUGH 72
 HOURS AND CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT AFTER THAT.
  
 SHOULD KENNETH ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...IT WOULD BE THE
 LATEST MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN
 SATELLITE ERA.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/1500Z 12.7N 109.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  22/0000Z 12.9N 111.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  22/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  23/0000Z 13.0N 115.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  23/1200Z 13.4N 117.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  24/1200Z 14.4N 120.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  25/1200Z 15.2N 124.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  26/1200Z 15.5N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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