853 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 251440
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005
  
 KENNETH REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE AND AN EYE HAS RECENTLY
 BECOME EVIDENT ON ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY.  DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT...65 KT...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB
 RESPECTIVELY.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT.  ALTHOUGH NO
 CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE SYSTEM
 COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
 ENVIRONMENT...BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A MORE
 STABLE AIR MASS CAUSE WEAKENING LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
 WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
  
 KENNETH IS DRIFTING A LITTLE SOUTH OF WESTWARD...260/2...AS IT HAS
 BEEN LOCATED IN A REGION OF LIGHT STEERING WINDS BETWEEN A
 MID-LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR
 THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THIS REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED
 SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36
 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
 DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KENNETH.  THIS FEATURE IS
 EXPECTED TO TURN THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT...AND ALSO TO INCREASE THE
 SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
 SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD AND
 SIMILAR TO IT IN THE LATTER PERIODS.  THIS IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN
 THE MODEL GUIDANCE...GIVEN THE HISTORY OF SLOW MOTION FOR THIS
 SYSTEM.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/1500Z 16.3N 139.7W    65 KT
  12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N 140.1W    65 KT
  24HR VT     26/1200Z 15.8N 140.7W    65 KT
  36HR VT     27/0000Z 15.9N 141.5W    65 KT
  48HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N 142.6W    60 KT
  72HR VT     28/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W    50 KT
  96HR VT     29/1200Z 19.5N 147.0W    40 KT
 120HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N 150.5W    30 KT
  
  
 $$