552 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 250300
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005
  
 LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF KENNETH DEPICTS A SYMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH
 GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A MOSTLY ENCLOSED
 EYEWALL WITH A PARTIAL OPENING IN THE SW QUADRANT. THE DVORAK
 ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INDICATE KENNETH IS VERY LIKELY A
 HURRICANE OR CLOSE TO IT. LIKEWISE...THE MOST RECENT CSU-CIRA AMSU
 INTENSITY ESTIMATE YIELDS 64 KTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KTS WHICH MAKES KENNETH A CATEGORY ONE
 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
 
 SHIPS INTENSITY AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE KENNETH
 WILL REMAIN AT CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
 OF DAYS. THE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK OVER THE SYSTEM AND THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE STAYS OVER 27 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.
 KENNETH WILL START TO WEAKEN IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD AS
 WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND OCEAN SSTS LOWER TO 25 DEGREES
 CELSIUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU
 SUPER ENSEMBLE FORECASTS KEEPING KENNETH A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HRS
 AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING IT AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT THE
 REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3 WHICH AMOUNTS TO A SLOW CRAWL. KENNETH
 STUBBORNLY REFUSES TO MAKE IT ACROSS 140W. THE SYSTEM IS WEDGED IN
 WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
 AND ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. MOST
 DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT KENNETH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND
 WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BEYOND 72 HRS...A MID TO
 UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP NORTHWEST OF KENNETH AND THIS STARTS TO
 ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS
 THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD IN DAYS 4 AND 5. 
  
 FORECASTER SISKO/KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/0300Z 16.4N 139.4W    65 KT
  12HR VT     25/1200Z 16.3N 139.8W    65 KT
  24HR VT     26/0000Z 16.1N 140.2W    65 KT
  36HR VT     26/1200Z 16.1N 140.8W    65 KT
  48HR VT     27/0000Z 16.5N 141.6W    60 KT
  72HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 143.1W    55 KT
  96HR VT     29/0000Z 19.5N 145.5W    50 KT
 120HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N 149.0W    40 KT
  
  
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