860 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 241500
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005
  
 MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THE CENTER OF KENNETH REMAINS NEAR THE
 EASTERN PORTION OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED
 FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/3. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO
 REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO
 REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
 BY 36 HOURS... A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD TO
 THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE... WHICH WILL ACT TO NUDGE KENNETH
 SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS... THE STEERING
 FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS A RIDGE TO NORTH OF
 KENNETH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF THE STEERING
 PATTERNS... THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK... SO SOME ERRATIC
 MOTION... INCLUDING SMALL LOOPS... WILL BE POSSIBLE.
 
 THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 2-5 KT IN 24-48 HOURS...
 SO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE KENNETH WILL
 STILL BE OVER 27C SSTS. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE VERY DRY
 MID-LEVEL AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM AT TIMES.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/1500Z 16.0N 138.3W    45 KT
  12HR VT     25/0000Z 16.1N 138.9W    45 KT
  24HR VT     25/1200Z 16.0N 139.7W    50 KT
  36HR VT     26/0000Z 15.7N 140.5W    50 KT
  48HR VT     26/1200Z 15.7N 141.3W    45 KT
  72HR VT     27/1200Z 16.2N 142.3W    45 KT
  96HR VT     28/1200Z 17.3N 143.3W    40 KT
 120HR VT     29/1200Z 18.5N 145.0W    35 KT
  
  
 $$