375 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 232042
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005
  
 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY HAS SHOWN PULSATING MARGINAL DEEP
 CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE
 AFFECTED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  USING ROUGHLY THE MEAN OF DVORAK
 T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY
 ESTIMATE OF 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR IS ONLY FORECAST TO
 LAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND SINCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS ARE
 POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST
 MAINTAINS THE CURRENT INTENSITY. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/4 KT. CURRENTLY A WEAK
 RIDGE EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
 FORECASTING A PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENNETH TO
 ERODE AS A DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTH
 WITHIN 48 HOURS...KEEPING STEERING CURRENTS WEAK. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
 THAT AN ANTICYLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH COULD INDUCE A
 SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. 
 THEREAFTER...A MORE NORTHWEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE TO
 A SLIGHT BUILDING OF AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF KENNETH.  
  
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/2100Z 15.9N 137.7W    50 KT
  12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 138.3W    50 KT
  24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.1N 138.9W    50 KT
  36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.1N 139.5W    50 KT
  48HR VT     25/1800Z 16.0N 140.0W    50 KT
  72HR VT     26/1800Z 16.0N 140.6W    50 KT
  96HR VT     27/1800Z 16.5N 141.5W    50 KT
 120HR VT     28/1800Z 17.0N 142.5W    45 KT
  
  
 $$