956 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 230857
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005
  
 MICROWAVE DATA SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS DETERMINED THAT THE
 CENTER LOCATION WAS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
 ESTIMATED.  A SSMI OVERPASS FROM 0522 UTC REVEALED A SOMEWHAT
 SHEARED SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SW
 SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
 FROM ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/3 KT. STEERING CURRENTS
 REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND THEY MAY ACTUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER. A WEAK
 EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT IS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
 IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVES
 SOUTHEAST WELL WEST OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. BECAUSE OF THE WEAK
 STEERING CURRENTS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY DIVERGENT
 WITH THE GFDL/GFS MOVING KENNETH SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.  THE UKMET
 APPEARS AN OUTLINER IN TRACKING THE STORM QUICKLY TO THE WEST. THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS A FORWARD SPEED OF 3-4 KT AND IS
 A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK ALSO
 SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION IN THE LONGER RANGER AS
 NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS MAY STEER KENNETH IN THAT
 DIRECTION.
  
 THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SLOW DECREASE IN
 INTENSITY OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND WILL MAINTAIN KENNETH AS A 55 KT
 TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS INDICATES
 THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR COULD LESSEN IN 24-36 HOURS WHICH COULD
 ALLOW KENNETH TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. 
  
 FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/0900Z 16.0N 136.4W    55 KT
  12HR VT     23/1800Z 16.2N 136.8W    55 KT
  24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.2N 137.4W    55 KT
  36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.3N 138.0W    55 KT
  48HR VT     25/0600Z 16.3N 138.9W    55 KT
  72HR VT     26/0600Z 16.0N 140.0W    55 KT
  96HR VT     27/0600Z 15.8N 141.5W    50 KT
 120HR VT     28/0600Z 15.6N 143.0W    50 KT
  
  
 $$