670 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 230255
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2005
 
 VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT CONVECTION INCREASING NEAR THE
 CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH. CURRENTLY...KENNETH IS LOCATED
 SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING
 LEVEL FLOW. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE CONSENSUS
 3.5 OR 55 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT
 FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER
 THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS KENNETH A
 TROPICAL STORM DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
 THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE GFDL
 INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS AN OUTLIER AS IT STRENGTHENS KENNETH TO
 A HURRICANE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN WEAKENS
 IT BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER IN THE PERIOD.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT
 WITH THE GFDL/GFS MOVING KENNETH TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE OTHER
 MODELS TRACK IT WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK CALLS FOR CONTINUED
 WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH FOLLOWS THE
 MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...NOGAPS...UKMET AND CONU. KENNETH IS
 EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
 THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.
  
 FORECASTER SISKO/KRAUTKRAMER/KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/0300Z 15.5N 136.4W    55 KT
  12HR VT     23/1200Z 15.6N 136.9W    50 KT
  24HR VT     24/0000Z 15.8N 137.6W    50 KT
  36HR VT     24/1200Z 15.9N 138.4W    50 KT
  48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.0N 139.2W    45 KT
  72HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N 140.5W    45 KT
  96HR VT     27/0000Z 16.1N 142.5W    45 KT
 120HR VT     28/0000Z 16.5N 144.0W    40 KT
  
  
 $$