Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 197 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 222025
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2005
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS KENNETH IS A WELL-DEVELOPED
 TROPICAL STORM WITH AN ORGANIZED OUTFLOW PATTERN. A 1559Z SSMI
 MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMED THE CIRCULATION CENTER FOUND EARLIER AND
 ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTED WAS NEEDED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KT
 IN ACCORD WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAB AND
 SAB. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE TO
 THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH IS CURRENTLY IMPINGING SOME NORTHEASTERLY
 SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE. DESPITE THE SHEAR...THE WATERS REMAIN ABOVE
 26 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND THE STORM CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS OWN. THE
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL
 AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...CALLS FOR KENNETH TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL
 STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SLOW WEAKENING.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/7. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
 DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL/GFS KEEPING A MEANDERING CYCLONE CLOSE TO
 ITS CURRENT LOCATION WITH AN EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS
 OF MAX. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS CONTINUE KENNETH ON A
 WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION BEING STEERED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
 TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TAKES KENNETH SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH FIVE DAYS
 BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS/UKMET SOLUTION.
 
  
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/2100Z 15.8N 136.3W    55 KT
  12HR VT     23/0600Z 16.0N 136.8W    55 KT
  24HR VT     23/1800Z 16.1N 137.6W    50 KT
  36HR VT     24/0600Z 16.2N 138.2W    50 KT
  48HR VT     24/1800Z 16.3N 139.1W    45 KT
  72HR VT     25/1800Z 16.4N 140.2W    45 KT
  96HR VT     26/1800Z 16.5N 141.5W    45 KT
 120HR VT     27/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W    40 KT
  
  
 $$
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for KENNETH

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman