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 474 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 221427
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2005
  
 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPARENT CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF KENNETH
 OVERNIGHT.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5...OR 55 KT FROM ALL
 AGENCIES...BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WHERE THE CENTER IS BEFORE
 ADJUSTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS
 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF KENNETH AND THIS IS IMPARTING SOME NORTHERLY
 OR NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR UNDERNEATH THE OUTFLOW LAYER.  THE NORTHERN
 SEMICIRCLE ALSO APPEARS TO BE RATHER DRY.  UNDERNEATH THE WATER IS
 STILL WARM...HOWEVER...AND THESE COMPETING FACTORS ARGUE FOR
 RELATIVELY MODEST INTENSITY CHANGES.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280/8 IS BASED ON CONTINUITY...AS THERE HAVE
 BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES AND THE CENTER CANNOT BE SEEN IN
 CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...
 WITH THE GFDL/GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE REFLECTING A NORTH TO
 NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT AS KENNETH INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF
 TROPICAL STORM MAX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO
 PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN TAKING KENNETH SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
 AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH...BUT
 SLOWER THAN...THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS. 
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/1500Z 15.4N 135.7W    50 KT
  12HR VT     23/0000Z 15.5N 136.2W    50 KT
  24HR VT     23/1200Z 15.7N 137.0W    45 KT
  36HR VT     24/0000Z 15.8N 137.7W    45 KT
  48HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 138.5W    45 KT
  72HR VT     25/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W    40 KT
  96HR VT     26/1200Z 16.0N 141.0W    40 KT
 120HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N 142.0W    40 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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