707 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 212037
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...
 WITH THE GFS SHOWING NO FURTHER WESTWARD MOTION AND THEN A
 NORTHEASTWARD PATH AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CIRCULATION OF MAX.
 THE NOGAPS AND UKMET KEEP KENNETH MOVING WESTWARD UNDERNEATH A
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  WITH MAX LOSING DEEP CONVECTION AND FORECAST TO
 WEAKEN QUICKLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LEANS TOWARD THE
 UKMET/NOGAPS SCENARIO...ALBEIT WITH A SLOWER WESTWARD PROGRESSION.
  
 MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NORTH OF THE DEEP
 CONVECTION...WHICH ALTHOUGH LIMITED IS STILL SHOWING SOME BANDING
 FEATURES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON THE EARLIER
 QUIKSCAT 50 KT VECTOR AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
 SAB.  THE SHIPS MODEL IS DIAGNOSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF NORTHEASTERLY
 SHEAR FROM THE GFS FIELDS...ALTHOUGH ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS
 EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE PRIMARY NEGATIVE
 INTENSIFICATION FACTOR IS THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  A SLOW
 DECAY IS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH WAS
 BASED ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS FROM THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/2100Z 14.9N 133.9W    45 KT
  12HR VT     22/0600Z 15.3N 134.8W    45 KT
  24HR VT     22/1800Z 15.6N 135.6W    40 KT
  36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.8N 136.1W    35 KT
  48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N 137.0W    35 KT
  72HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W    35 KT
  96HR VT     25/1800Z 16.0N 139.0W    35 KT
 120HR VT     26/1800Z 16.0N 140.0W    35 KT
  
  
 $$