372 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 211430
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005
  
 RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT KENNETH IS MOVING A LITTLE
 FASTER...320/6.  A WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE NORTH
 OF THE CYCLONE...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW LONG THIS WILL BE THE
 DECISIVE STEERING FEATURE.  THE GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER
 LOW AND/OR THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM MAX WILL MOVE WESTWARD
 AND BEGIN TO ERODE THIS RIDGE.  THE GFS RESPONDS BY PULLING KENNETH
 NORTHWARD UNDER THIS LOW...AND THE UKMET SHOWS A VERY SLOW MOTION
 FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS KEEPS
 KENNETH UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND DRIVES THE CYCLONE WESTWARD.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE OPTIONS BUT
 IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP
 CONVECTION...WHICH HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
 HOURS.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 03Z HAD A 50 KT VECTOR.  BASED ON THIS
 AND THE FACT THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED...THE ADVISORY
 INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 50 KT.  THE PRESENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN
 SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR IS NOT PROHIBITIVE AT THIS TIME...AND WATER
 TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM.  THEREFORE KENNETH MAY BE SLOW TO SPIN
 DOWN BEFORE COOLER WATERS ARE REACHED IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
 
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/1500Z 14.4N 132.3W    50 KT
  12HR VT     22/0000Z 14.9N 132.8W    45 KT
  24HR VT     22/1200Z 15.5N 133.2W    40 KT
  36HR VT     23/0000Z 15.9N 133.6W    35 KT
  48HR VT     23/1200Z 16.3N 134.0W    35 KT
  72HR VT     24/1200Z 17.0N 135.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     25/1200Z 18.0N 136.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     26/1200Z 18.5N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
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