368 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 210833
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005
  
 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER RAGGED CLOUD
 PATTERN THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION...WHAT LITTLE REMAINS...IS
 CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
 POSITION IS BASICALLY AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 0320Z QUIKSCAT
 AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS...SINCE THE CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO
 LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
 45 KT TO 55 KT...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS DECREASING TO 35 KT AND 45 KT.
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
 SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 AFTERWARDS...SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN
 KENNETH TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5. 
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/3. KENNETH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID- LAYER RIDGE TO THE
 NORTH DURING THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS...THEN WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW
 LEVEL TRADE FLOW AS A WEAKENED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST...WHICH IS BASED PRIMARILY OFF THE CONU CONSENSUS
 MODEL...IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
 SLOWER BEYOND 72 HOURS.
 
 THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS.
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/0900Z 13.6N 131.7W    50 KT
  12HR VT     21/1800Z 13.9N 132.0W    45 KT
  24HR VT     22/0600Z 14.5N 132.5W    40 KT
  36HR VT     22/1800Z 15.0N 133.0W    35 KT
  48HR VT     23/0600Z 15.4N 133.5W    30 KT
  72HR VT     24/0600Z 16.7N 134.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 135.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     26/0600Z 19.0N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
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