477 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 210240
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005
  
 A 1943Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
 BECOME DISPLACED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-LEVEL
 CIRCULATION. EARLIER SSM/I IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE SHEARED
 TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY. UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT
 DEPICTS 20 TO 30 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 KT TO 65 KT. THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
 WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AS KENNETH CONTINUES TO MOVE
 WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS AGREES WITH THE SHIPS
 AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/3. THE INTERMITTENT SOUTHWESTWARD
 DRIFTS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE
 PAST 36 HOURS APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY THE MID- LEVEL PERIPHERAL
 RIDGE BETWEEN JOVA AND KENNETH. THE GFS...NOGAPS...UKMET...FSU SUPER
 ENSEMBLE AND THE GFDN SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LAYER HIGH TO THE
 NORTH OF KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
 MECHANISM. KENNETH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
 NEXT 72 HOURS...THEN WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WITHIN THE LOW
 LEVEL TRADE FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO
 THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...A BIT SLOWER...AND FOLLOWS A
 BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/0300Z 13.5N 131.4W    55 KT
  12HR VT     21/1200Z 13.7N 131.7W    50 KT
  24HR VT     22/0000Z 14.3N 132.3W    45 KT
  36HR VT     22/1200Z 14.9N 132.9W    40 KT
  48HR VT     23/0000Z 15.3N 133.4W    35 KT
  72HR VT     24/0000Z 16.7N 135.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     26/0000Z 19.5N 141.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
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