786 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 202105
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005
  
 A CURVED BAND HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTER OF
 KENNETH DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INFRARED
 IMAGERY INDICATES THE CYCLONE ALMOST DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. 
 DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 65 KT FROM
 AFWA.  BASED ON THE CLASSIFICATIONS AND SATELLITE APPEARANCE...
 KENNETH HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CYCLONE IS
 EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
 NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 WEAKENS THE STORM ON A SLOWER TREND THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/2. THE SOUTHWEST DRIFT SEEN
 EARLIER TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED...AND KENNETH HAS NOW RESUMED
 A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL
 ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
 MODELS TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
 CONTINUE TO STEER KENNETH TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS
 THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. 
  
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/2100Z 13.1N 131.6W    55 KT
  12HR VT     21/0600Z 13.3N 132.2W    50 KT
  24HR VT     21/1800Z 13.8N 132.9W    45 KT
  36HR VT     22/0600Z 14.5N 133.7W    40 KT
  48HR VT     22/1800Z 15.0N 134.2W    35 KT
  72HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N 135.5W    30 KT
  96HR VT     24/1800Z 17.5N 138.5W    30 KT
 120HR VT     25/1800Z 18.5N 142.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  
  
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