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 308 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 200830
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005
  
 THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A 0232Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
 OVERPASS INDICATE FURTHER EROSION OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
 TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IMPEDES THE OUTFLOW.
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ON THE DECLINE...WITH 77 KT FROM ALL
 AGENCIES...AND DATA-T NUMBERS 55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 DECREASED TO 75 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
 NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. LATE IN
 THE PERIOD...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS
 SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH. THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU
 SUPERENSEMBLE.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/3. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING
 WITHIN THE MID-LAYER STEERING FLOW OF A HIGH SITUATED TO THE
 NORTHWEST. KENNETH SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
 MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A GRADUAL TURN TO
 THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM
 TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A
 CONSENSUS OF THE NOGAPS...GFDN...UKMET AND THE GFS.
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/0900Z 13.6N 131.1W    75 KT
  12HR VT     20/1800Z 13.7N 131.6W    65 KT
  24HR VT     21/0600Z 14.2N 132.1W    55 KT
  36HR VT     21/1800Z 14.7N 132.9W    45 KT
  48HR VT     22/0600Z 15.4N 133.6W    40 KT
  72HR VT     23/0600Z 16.9N 135.3W    35 KT
  96HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N 138.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     25/0600Z 18.5N 140.5W    30 KT
  
 $$
 
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