766 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 200236
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005
 
 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT DISORGANIZATION OF THE
 OUTER BANDS AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER
 THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A 2038Z TRMM OVERPASS CLEARLY
 CONFIRMED THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTH
 SEMI-CIRCLE. IT APPEARS...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT AN UPPER
 ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF HURRICANE JOVA...AND IS PROVIDING
 NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KENNETH'S PATH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 ARE 77 KT FROM AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB. DATA-T NUMBERS
 HAVE DROPPED TO 65 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. AS A COMPROMISE...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT. THE SHIPS SUGGESTS THAT THE
 NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THROUGH THE
 REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLIES AND COOLER
 WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH BY DAY 5.
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE
 FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
 AFTER AN 18 HOUR PERIOD OF MEANDERING WITHIN A BREAK IN THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...KENNETH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
 AROUND 3 KT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
 LEVEL STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL HIGH
 SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THEN...A
 GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS A MID-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS
 WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
 OF THE NOGAPS...GFDN...UKMET AND THE GFS...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
 PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/0300Z 13.6N 130.9W    80 KT
  12HR VT     20/1200Z 13.7N 131.2W    70 KT
  24HR VT     21/0000Z 14.1N 131.9W    60 KT
  36HR VT     21/1200Z 14.7N 132.7W    50 KT
  48HR VT     22/0000Z 15.3N 133.5W    45 KT
  72HR VT     23/0000Z 17.2N 135.3W    40 KT
  96HR VT     24/0000Z 18.5N 137.5W    35 KT
 120HR VT     25/0000Z 19.0N 140.0W    30 KT
  
  
 $$