231 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 192038
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005
  
 NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS PERSISTED THROUGHOUT DAY AND ALL OF THE DEEP
 CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION OF KENNETH
 HAS WEAKENED.  DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH DATA
 T-NUMBERS OF 5.0...90 KT...FROM TAFB AND 4.0...65 KT...FROM SAB.
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO A GENEROUS 90 KT. SINCE SSTS
 REMAIN ABOVE 27 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE AREA...SOME BURSTS OF
 CONVECTION MAY STILL REDEVELOP. THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO RELAX
 RESULTING IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLING FOR CONTINUED 
 WEAKENING. KENNETH SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS IF
 NOT SOONER.
 
 KENNETH HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR THE LAST NINE HOURS. KENNETH IS
 CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A COL REGION...AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING
 FLOW...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
 MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
 CYCLONE ALLOWING KENNETH TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
 REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
 BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS THE FSU
 SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/2100Z 13.4N 130.5W    90 KT
  12HR VT     20/0600Z 13.5N 130.7W    80 KT
  24HR VT     20/1800Z 13.8N 131.4W    70 KT
  36HR VT     21/0600Z 14.2N 132.0W    60 KT
  48HR VT     21/1800Z 14.9N 132.7W    55 KT
  72HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N 134.3W    50 KT
  96HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 136.0W    45 KT
 120HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 138.0W    40 KT
  
  
 $$