597 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 190836
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005
  
 UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
 UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER HURRICANE JOVA IS CREATING SOME NORTHERLY
 SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENNETH. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
 ERODED THE EYEWALL...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE COLLAPSED OVER THE NORTH
 QUADRANT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND SO
 HAS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE...WHICH IS SET AT 110 KT. THE
 TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE NORTHERLY
 SHEAR CONTINUES AND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. 
  
 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER MAY HAVE MEANDERED A LITTLE TO THE
 SOUTHWEST...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. KENNETH IS
 EXPECTED TO BEGIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWING THE FLOW
 ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST
 OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE
 TO SUGGEST A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WHICH APPEARS TO BE DUE TO
 SOME INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM MAX TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE
 RIGHT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS AND THE GFDN.
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/0900Z 13.7N 130.5W   110 KT
  12HR VT     19/1800Z 13.7N 130.8W   100 KT
  24HR VT     20/0600Z 13.8N 131.2W    90 KT
  36HR VT     20/1800Z 14.0N 131.7W    80 KT
  48HR VT     21/0600Z 14.3N 132.5W    70 KT
  72HR VT     22/0600Z 15.5N 134.0W    65 KT
  96HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N 135.5W    55 KT
 120HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N 137.5W    45 KT
  
  
 $$