587 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 190315
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005
 
 ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER RAGGED 18 NM EYE...WITH
 CONSIDERABLE WARMING OF THE EYE WALL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KT. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
 ON A DECLINE AS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
 INTENSITY FORECASTS INDICATE. ALTHOUGH KENNETH MAY BE
 WEAKENING...THE TREND SHOULD BE GRADUAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
 PERIOD.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/6. KENNETH IS MOVING
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERAL FLOW OF A MID-
 LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE
 GFDL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WHICH
 APPEARS TO BE SOME INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM MAX TO THE EAST.
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT
 SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS AND THE
 GFDN.
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/0300Z 14.1N 130.4W   115 KT
  12HR VT     19/1200Z 14.1N 131.1W   110 KT
  24HR VT     20/0000Z 14.3N 132.0W   100 KT
  36HR VT     20/1200Z 14.8N 133.0W    90 KT
  48HR VT     21/0000Z 15.3N 134.0W    80 KT
  72HR VT     22/0000Z 16.0N 135.2W    65 KT
  96HR VT     23/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W    55 KT
 120HR VT     24/0000Z 17.0N 138.5W    50 KT
  
  
 $$