740 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 182100
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005
 
 KENNETH REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING BUT MINI CATEGORY FOUR
 HURRICANE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES
 FROM SAB...TAFB AND AFWA ARE A CONSENSUS 6.0 OR 115 KT AND
 ESTIMATES FROM THE UW-CIMSS AODT ARE 6.4 RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY FOR KENNETH REMAINS AT 115 KT OR CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR
 THIS ADVISORY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/5. THE GFDL AND GFS TRACKS
 STILL INSIST ON MOVING KENNETH NORTHWARD IN 24-36 HRS IN RESPONSE
 TO A DEEP LAYERED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE REMAINING
 GUIDANCE CONTINUES MOVING THE TROPICAL CYCONE ON A MORE
 WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST TRACK AS STRONGER RIDGING REMAINS NORTH OF
 THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE NOGAPS AND THE
 CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE IN A GENERAL SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST
 TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN CLOSE
 AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY
 MODEL...IT CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
 FORECAST. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SHOWS SHEAR INCREASING BEYOND
 60 HRS BUT THE SSTS REMAIN ABOVE 26 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
 FORECAST PERIOD. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE
 STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 72 HRS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...KENNETH IS EXPECTED
 TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
 PERIOD.
  
 FORECASTER SISKO/KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/2100Z 14.3N 129.8W   115 KT
  12HR VT     19/0600Z 14.4N 130.6W   110 KT
  24HR VT     19/1800Z 14.7N 131.4W   100 KT
  36HR VT     20/0600Z 15.0N 132.2W    90 KT
  48HR VT     20/1800Z 15.3N 132.9W    80 KT
  72HR VT     21/1800Z 16.0N 134.2W    65 KT
  96HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 136.0W    55 KT
 120HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W    50 KT
  
  
 $$