827 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 180230
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS
 DEPICT A CLEAR 25 NM EYE...AND AN EXPANSION OF THE BANDING OVER THE
 NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS.  THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
 ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE SIZE EXPANSION OVER THE TWO
 QUADRANTS. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AS WELL AS THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A
 GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
 OVER COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS...AS
 THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
 SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
 PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE
 THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...KENNETH IS FORECAST TO SLOW IN
 FORWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE
 DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH
 THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH SUGGESTS AN EARLIER...ABRUPT TURN TO
 THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
 CONSENSUS...AND CLOSER TO THE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET.
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/0300Z 14.2N 128.2W   105 KT
  12HR VT     18/1200Z 14.6N 129.1W   100 KT
  24HR VT     19/0000Z 15.1N 130.0W    90 KT
  36HR VT     19/1200Z 15.6N 130.8W    80 KT
  48HR VT     20/0000Z 16.1N 131.5W    70 KT
  72HR VT     21/0000Z 17.0N 133.0W    60 KT
  96HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W    55 KT
 120HR VT     23/0000Z 18.0N 135.5W    50 KT
  
 $$