173 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 172101
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005
  
 VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DISPLAY AN IMPRESSIVE 20 NM WIDE
 SYMMETRIC EYE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT T-NUMBER 5.5..OR
 102 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
 AT 105 KT. SSTS ARE CURRENTLY 28.0 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH ARE
 HELPING TO MAINTAIN KENNETH AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. INTENSITY
 GUIDANCE FROM SHIPS...THE GFDL MODEL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
 ALL INDICATE GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SSTS
 COOL SLIGHTLY AND NORTHERLY SHEAR REMAINS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT. THE
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS WEAKENING TREND. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/6. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED. 
 ALL THE DYANAMICAL MODELS...EXCEPT THE UKMET...KEEP KENNETH SLOWER
 AND TO THE RIGHT AND NORTH OF THE BAROTROPIC MODELS.  KENNETH IS
 FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
 SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
 CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...KENNETH IS FORECAST TO SLOW
 IN FORWARD MOTION AS THE STEERING CURRENTS BECOME WEAKER. 
 
 BASED ON A 15Z QUIKSCAT PASS...THE RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED IN ALL
 QUADRANTS. THE 12 FOOT SEA RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON
 THE LATEST NOAA WAVE WATCH THREE GUIDANCE.
  
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/2100Z 14.0N 127.5W   105 KT
  12HR VT     18/0600Z 14.4N 128.3W   100 KT
  24HR VT     18/1800Z 14.8N 129.3W    95 KT
  36HR VT     19/0600Z 15.3N 130.2W    85 KT
  48HR VT     19/1800Z 15.9N 131.1W    75 KT
  72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.7N 132.3W    65 KT
  96HR VT     21/1800Z 17.2N 133.5W    60 KT
 120HR VT     22/1800Z 17.5N 134.5W    50 KT
  
  
 $$