867 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 171505
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005
 
 INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 1152Z SSMI OVERPASS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 25NM
 CLEAR SYMMETRIC EYE.  THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF
 KENNETH HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE CYCLONE
 MOST LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 08Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 5.5...102KT...FROM TAFB...AND
 5.0...90KT... FROM SAB. LATEST AODT ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 5.6 AND
 5.8 WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. THE SHIPS
 MAINTAINS KENNETH OVER A 100KT HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
 WHILE THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE WEAKEN KENNETH TO 95KT AND
 80KT RESPECTIVELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SLOWLY WEAKENS
 THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE MAINTAINING HURRICANE
 STATUS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED
 LITTLE SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
 GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND INTO A
 DEVELOPING WEAKNESS NEAR 135W THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
 CONU/GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS.
  
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/1500Z 13.7N 126.6W   105 KT
  12HR VT     18/0000Z 14.1N 127.5W   100 KT
  24HR VT     18/1200Z 14.5N 128.4W    95 KT
  36HR VT     19/0000Z 14.9N 129.3W    85 KT
  48HR VT     19/1200Z 15.3N 130.2W    75 KT
  72HR VT     20/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W    65 KT
  96HR VT     21/1200Z 17.0N 133.0W    60 KT
 120HR VT     22/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W    55 KT
  
  
 $$