904 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 170905
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005
  
 A 0435Z SSMI OVERPASS AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A SMALL
 SYMMETRIC TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A ROUND...13 NM CLEAR EYE. CORE
 CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6
 HOURS...AND THE AODT SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 117 KT.  06Z DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES CLIMBED TO 90 KT.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 110 KT. THE SHIPS AN THE FSU
 SUPERENSEMBLE HOLD THE INTENSITY STEADY FOR 24 HOURS BEFORE
 INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE GFDL DROPS THE INTENSITY TO 75
 KT IN 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HEDGES CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
 AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE...MAINTAINING 90 KT AT 24 HOURS.
 AFTERWARD...A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
 ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS ALONG THE SYSTEM'S PATH.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/7. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-
 LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS ...AND INTO A
 DEVELOPING WEAKNESS NEAR 135W THEREAFTER. THE GFDL AND THE GFS
 SUGGEST A MORE ABRUPT TURN TO THE NORTH NEAR 131/132W...WHILE THE
 NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN AND THE UKMET INDICATE A GRADUAL
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE WEAKNESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
 FORECAST. THE ONLY OUTLIER IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE UKMET WHICH
 SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY FASTER SPEED OF ADVANCE THROUGH DAY 5. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
 FOLLOWS THE CONU/GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS.
  
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/0900Z 13.6N 125.8W   110 KT
  12HR VT     17/1800Z 13.9N 126.8W   105 KT
  24HR VT     18/0600Z 14.3N 127.8W    90 KT
  36HR VT     18/1800Z 14.7N 128.6W    80 KT
  48HR VT     19/0600Z 15.1N 129.4W    75 KT
  72HR VT     20/0600Z 15.8N 131.0W    65 KT
  96HR VT     21/0600Z 16.5N 132.5W    60 KT
 120HR VT     22/0600Z 17.5N 133.5W    55 KT
  
  
 $$