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 647 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 151427
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005
  
 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WELL-DEFINED BANDING IN THE
 SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND VERY COLD CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT.  THE ADVISORY
 INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM 35 TO 45 KT AND MAY STILL BE A
 LITTLE BEHIND THE CURVE.  OUTFLOW IS STRONG TO THE SOUTH BUT
 LIMITED ELSEWHERE.  INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR THAT OF
 JOVA...WITH THE GFDL TAKING THE SYSTEM TO OVER 80 KT BUT THE SHIPS
 KEEPING THE CYCLONE AS A TROPICAL STORM.  GIVEN THE MORE IMPRESSIVE
 ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM...I TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFDL
 SOLUTION.  INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS
 AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOP THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF KENNETH AND END
 UP HAVING THIS SYSTEM ABSORB KENNETH.  THIS SCENARIO IS NOT
 CONSIDERED REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7.  KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING
 THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS AND GFDL
 GUIDANCE...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE
 DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/1500Z 13.1N 120.3W    45 KT
  12HR VT     16/0000Z 13.3N 121.4W    55 KT
  24HR VT     16/1200Z 13.6N 122.5W    65 KT
  36HR VT     17/0000Z 13.9N 123.6W    65 KT
  48HR VT     17/1200Z 14.2N 124.6W    70 KT
  72HR VT     18/1200Z 14.8N 126.5W    70 KT
  96HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N 129.0W    65 KT
 120HR VT     20/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W    60 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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