752 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 150900
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005
  
 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CLUSTER OF VERY STRONG
 CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -80C WHICH HAVE
 PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 6-8 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE
 T3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 ELEVEN-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KENNETH...THE ELEVENTH
 TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON. 
 
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 35 KT. LAST EVENING THE
 CENTER WAS EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTION...BUT LATEST
 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW UNDERNEATH THE 
 STRONG CONVECTION. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
 STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
 EMBEDDED IN RELATIVELY LIGHT EASTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF
 A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN 20N-25N. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
 INHIBITING FACTOR COULD BE KENNETH'S PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM
 JOVA TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY
 FASTER THAN KENNETH...THEREBY LESSENING THE CHANCES OF ANY
 SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES. BEYOND 72
 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
 SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION IN
 FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 125W.
 THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED RATHER TIGHTLY ALONG A WEST-
 NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER IN
 FORWARD SPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MODELS SHOW
 SOME DIVERGENCE WITH THE GFS CONTINUING A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
 TRACK...AND THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL WHICH TURNS KENNETH IN A
 CYCLONIC LOOP. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH THE
 PREVIOUS ONE...BUT A BIT SLOWER. 
  
 FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0900Z 13.1N 119.7W    35 KT
  12HR VT     15/1800Z 13.5N 120.7W    40 KT
  24HR VT     16/0600Z 13.9N 121.9W    45 KT
  36HR VT     16/1800Z 14.3N 123.2W    50 KT
  48HR VT     17/0600Z 14.7N 124.4W    55 KT
  72HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W    60 KT
  96HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N 128.5W    55 KT
 120HR VT     20/0600Z 17.0N 131.5W    50 KT
  
 $$