573 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 150244
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005
  
 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE
 DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION IS PULSING UP AND DOWN ON
 THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH IS PARTLY EXPOSED
 ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE. A TRMM PASS AT 2203Z CONFIRMS THIS SHEARED
 APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
 NOW AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FROM TAFB/SAB...THE TRMM PASS SHOWED
 NO WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION HIGHER THAN 25 KT.
 THERE ARE ALSO NO TRUE CURVED BAND FEATURES WITH A BLOB-LIKE
 APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30
 KT AND IF THE CONVECTION PERSISTS...THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME THE
 11TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON OVERNIGHT.
 
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SEEM FAVORABLE FOR
 SLOW STRENGTHENING AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
 GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS.  SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE
 PERIOD DUE TO GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.   
  
 THE TRMM PASS ALSO HELPED THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NOW ABOUT
 310/9.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH THAN
 EARLIER...PERHAPS RESPONDING TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
 ALONG 125W.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT... OR
 NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL. 
 MODELS ALSO INSIST ON A SLOWER MOTION THAN RECENTLY SEEN AND THE
 FORECAST SPEED IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
 MODEL CONSENSUS.  SOME ADJUSTMENT IN TRACK WILL PROBABLY STILL BE
 NEEDED AS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE BETTER ASSIMILATES THE DEPRESSION'S
 POSITION AND INTENSITY.  
  
 FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0300Z 13.0N 119.1W    30 KT
  12HR VT     15/1200Z 13.5N 120.4W    35 KT
  24HR VT     16/0000Z 14.0N 121.7W    45 KT
  36HR VT     16/1200Z 14.5N 123.0W    50 KT
  48HR VT     17/0000Z 15.0N 124.5W    55 KT
  72HR VT     18/0000Z 15.5N 127.5W    60 KT
  96HR VT     19/0000Z 16.0N 130.5W    55 KT
 120HR VT     20/0000Z 16.5N 133.5W    50 KT
  
  
 $$