420 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 142030
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
 LOCATED ABOUT 500 N MI EAST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E HAS
 DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED AT THE
 NORTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS TO -75C.  SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/9.  NONE OF THE
 LARGE-SCALE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF...ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THIS
 SYSTEM EXISTS.  THE ECMWF CALLS FOR A ERRATIC WESTWARD MOTION SOUTH
 OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION GRADUALLY
 BECOMING MORE WESTWARD WITH TIME.  THIS TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
 WITH THE NHC91.  SOME ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD OCCUR
 ONCE THE INITIAL MOTION IS BETTER KNOWN.
 
 VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
 GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL IS THE ONLY MODEL TO
 FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 WILL LEAN MORE ON THE SHIPS MODEL.
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/2100Z 12.5N 118.4W    30 KT
  12HR VT     15/0600Z 13.0N 119.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     15/1800Z 13.4N 121.5W    45 KT
  36HR VT     16/0600Z 13.7N 123.4W    50 KT
  48HR VT     16/1800Z 14.0N 125.2W    55 KT
  72HR VT     17/1800Z 14.5N 128.5W    60 KT
  96HR VT     18/1800Z 14.5N 131.5W    60 KT
 120HR VT     19/1800Z 14.5N 134.5W    30 KT
  
  
 $$