095 
 WTPA44 PHFO 300230
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  62
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
 500 PM HST THU SEP 29 2005
 
 SINCE MORNING...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH HAS MAINTAINED A WELL
 ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND NEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
 NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS HAS ALLOWED A DATA T-NUMBER TO BE
 DETERMINED AGAIN USING THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS. CURRENT
 INTENSITIES AT 30/00Z WERE 1.5 AND 2.0. WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY AT 30 KT.
  
 THE 29/1800 CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWED MORE THAN 30 KNOTS OF WEST
 SOUTHWEST SHEAR ACROSS KENNETH. WITH LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND
 RATHER STRONG SHEAR...KENNETH IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24
 HOURS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM MODEL RUNS SHOW KENNETH OPENING UP
 INTO A TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST.  
 THE TROUGH WILL CARRY LOTS OF MOISTURE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
 ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UNDER A LOW ALOFT SO HEAVY
 RAIN IS LIKELY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS FRIDAY AND
 SATURDAY.
  
 FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0300Z 19.1N 151.4W    30 KT
  12HR VT     30/1200Z 19.1N 153.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  24HR VT     01/0000Z 19.1N 155.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATED
   
  
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