876 
 WTPA44 PHFO 291455
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  60
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
 500 AM HST THU SEP 29 2005
 
 COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT KENNETH NO
 LONGER HAD ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR HIS CENTER. THEREFORE...A DATA
 T COULD NOT BE COMPUTED...LEAVING US WITH A FINAL T BASED ON MET.
 AFTER APPLYING DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 FROM PHFO JTWC AND GWC CONTINUED BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0...OR FROM 25 TO
 30 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT...MAKING KENNETH A TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION.
 
 KENNETH REMAINS ON A COURSE JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST...OR 280/10. THE
 OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE DIVIDED INTO TWO CAMPS. ONE CONSISTING OF THE
 GLOBAL AND CONSENSUS MODELS...AND BAMS KEEP KENNETH MOVING TO THE
 WEST. THE REMAINING AIDS HAVE KENNETH WANDERING OFF TO THE
 NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE FIRST BUNCH...
 PUTTING KENNETH AS A REMNANT LOW JUST NORTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
 FRIDAY AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
 SATURDAY. THE TRACK IS AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT...WITH SHIP AND DSHIP STRENGTHENING
 KENNETH WHILE THE REST EITHER WEAKEN OR MAINTAIN HIM AT HIS PRESENT
 INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WEAKENS THE SYSTEM TO A
 25 KT REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS THEN KEEPS IT THERE THROUGH 96 HOURS.
  
 FORECASTER CRAIG
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/1500Z 19.0N 149.2W    30 KT
  12HR VT     30/0000Z 19.3N 150.7W    30 KT
  24HR VT     30/1200Z 19.8N 152.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     01/0000Z 20.3N 155.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     01/1200Z 21.0N 157.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     02/1200Z 22.7N 163.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     03/1200Z 25.0N 168.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$