696 
 WTPA44 PHFO 290225
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  58
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
 500 PM HST WED SEP 28 2005
 
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH LOST ALL HIS DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING BUT
 NEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER 120NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER
 THIS AFTERNOON. WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...IT IS NO
 LONGER POSSIBLE TO DETERMINE DATA T-NUMBERS USING THE SUBJECTIVE
 DVORAK TECHNIQUE. WITH NO RECENT QUIKSCAT PASSES AVAILABLE...WE
 WILL FOLLOW THE DVORAK MODEL AND CONTINUE WEAKENING KENNETH AT 1/2
 T-NUMBER PER 6 HOURS USING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.
 
 THE MAJOR COMPUTER MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC
 PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FAIRLY STRONG 1029MB HIGH NEAR 36N
 139W IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN. A LOW
 ALOFT...NOW NEAR 23N 152W...IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER KAUAI BY
 1200 UTC ON 1 OCTOBER. THIS LOW EXTENDS DOWN TO AT LEAST 700MB.
 KENNETH IS MOVING UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF
 THE LOW. ALTHOUGH KENNETH HAS BECOME A RATHER SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE
 SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS DOWN FAR ENOUGH TO KEEP STEERING
 KENNETH TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST.
  
 THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. WE HAVE
 ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT WHICH CARRIES THE
 CENTER OF KENNETH JUST OFF THE NORTH SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
 ISLANDS. THIS TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DYNAMIC MODELS AND
 THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. 
  
 WITH LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR KENNETH...THE SYSTEM
 SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...DROPPING BELOW
 TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE WIND FIELD WILL BE
 ASYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF CENTER. WITH THE
 CYCLONE TRACKING NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE WINDS
 WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE ISLANDS.
 
 THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH AND THE LOW ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO
 INTERACT TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT
 THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH A WEAKENING KENNETH PASSING NORTH OF THE
 ISLANDS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY
 FALL AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IF KENNETH WERE TO TRACK FURTHER
 SOUTH THE RAINFALL MIGHT BE CONCENTRATED MORE OVER WINDWARD AREAS.
 IN EITHER CASE...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY.
  
 FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/0300Z 18.7N 147.1W    35 KT
  12HR VT     29/1200Z 19.2N 148.5W    30 KT
  24HR VT     30/0000Z 19.7N 150.6W    30 KT
  36HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N 152.8W    25 KT
  48HR VT     01/0000Z 20.6N 155.1W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     02/0000Z 22.3N 159.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     03/0000Z 24.1N 164.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
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