551 
 WTPA44 PHFO 280916
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  55
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
 1100 PM HST TUE SEP 27 2005
 
 LATEST FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE PLACED KENNETH A LITTLE FURTHER 
 NORTH AND WEST THAN EXPECTED. EARLIER TODAY KENNETH TRIED TO DEVELOP 
 MORE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER 0730Z IR IMAGERY 
 SHOWS A WEAKENING STATE TO THE CONVECTION AROUND KENNETH. THE FIXES 
 MADE AROUND THE 06Z TIME FRAME HAD DVORAK NUMBERS RANGING FROM 1.5 
 TO 3.0 FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES FOR A WIDE RANGE OF INTENSITY. 
 HAVE KEPT WITH THE 45 KNOT WINDS AFTER LOOKING AT 0339Z QUICKSCAT 
 PASS OVER KENNETH. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND RADII BASED ON THIS DATA 
 TO INCREASE THE WIND RADII TO SLIGHTLY THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
 
 LAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR KENNETH HAVE BEEN PRETTY 
 STEADY BRINGING KENNETH INTO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON FRIDAY AS A 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SHIPS GUIDANCE REMAINS CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE 
 5 PM PACKAGE NUMBERS THEREFORE...THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST. ALSO...HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TRACK ONLY 
 SLIGHTLY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS 
 MODEL FORECASTS FOR TRACK. 
 
 GOING TO KEEP WITH THE WEAKENING TREND OF KENNETH AFTER THE 12 HOUR 
 FORECAST POINT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DROPPING INTO THE MAIN 
 HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL INCREASE 
 THE LAYER SHEAR GREATLY AROUND THE ISLANDS. COOLER SEA SURFACE 
 TEMPERATURES ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE WEAKENING OF 
 THE SYSTEM. 
 
 KENNETH COULD JUST BE A LOW LEVEL SWIRL OF CLOUDS AS IT APPROACHES 
 THE ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE 
 WITH THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA COULD COMBINE WITH 
 KENNETH/S MOISTURE FIELD FOR A VERY WET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR THE 
 ISLANDS. TROPICAL SYSTEMS INTERACTING WITH THE ISLANDS HAVE PRODUCED 
 VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING IN THE PAST...KENNETH HAS A 
 POSSIBILITY PRODUCING THESE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 
  
 FORECASTER PROTON/HOUSTON
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      28/0900Z 17.1N 144.2W    45 KT
  12HR VT     28/1800Z 18.2N 145.6W    45 KT
  24HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N 147.7W    40 KT
  36HR VT     29/1800Z 19.4N 149.6W    35 KT
  48HR VT     30/0600Z 19.7N 151.3W    30 KT
  72HR VT     01/0600Z 19.8N 154.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     02/0600Z 19.7N 158.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     03/0600Z...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$