939 
 WTPA44 PHFO 272105
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
 1100 AM HST TUE SEP 27 2005
 
 THE THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH APPEARS
 INCREASINGLY SPOTTY AND UNIMPRESSIVE. WE HAVE KEPT ITS MAXIMUM
 SUSTAINED WINDS AT 45 KNOTS WITH DIFFERENCE TO 40 KNOT QUICKSCAT
 OBSERVATIONS AND A DATA T OF 3.O. KENNETH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
 AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS
 COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. MODELS INDICATE THE SHEARING WINDS ALOFT
 WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH TIME MAKING KENNETHS ABILITY TO SUSTAIN
 ITS TROPICAL STORM STATUS VERY UNLIKELY AS IT MOVES FURTHER
 NORTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER THE WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF
 THE STORM WILL NOT REMOVE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL BY ITS
 REMNANTS THIS WEEK END.
 
 THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY PATH HAS BEEN PRESERVED FOR THE SHORTER
 TERM BUT HAS CHANGED TO A MORE WESTERLY ORIENTATION IN THE LATE
 PERIODS AS INCREASING SHEAR WOULD DICTATE. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
 WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS AND FAVORS THE CONCENSUS MODELS IN THE
 MAIN.
 
 FORECASTER MATSUDA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/2100Z 15.1N 142.2W    45 KT
  12HR VT     28/0600Z 15.7N 142.8W    45 KT
  24HR VT     28/1800Z 16.7N 144.1W    40 KT
  36HR VT     29/0600Z 17.6N 145.6W    35 KT
  48HR VT     29/1800Z 18.3N 147.1W    30 KT
  72HR VT     30/1800Z 18.7N 150.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     01/1800Z 18.8N 154.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$