902 
 WTPA44 PHFO 270240
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
 5 PM HST MON SEP 26 2005
 
 EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SMALL THUNDERSTORMS THAT JUST POPPED UP
 SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF KENNETH...DEEP CONVECTION HAS
 ALL BUT VANISHED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
 CONTINUE TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE IN
 THE CURRENT POSITION IS FAIR AT BEST. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 FROM THE VARIOUS SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE LESS PROBLEMATIC..RANGING
 AGAIN FROM 3.0 TO 3.5...OR BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT. BASED ON THE
 PAUCITY OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
 LOWERED TO A STILL CONSERVATIVE 55 KT.
 
 IT LOOKS LIKE KENNETH HAS STARTED ITS ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE
 NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 270/5. PRESSURE
 FALLS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS OVER HAWAII LIKELY INDICATES THE
 DEPARTURE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH. IT WAS THIS HIGH THAT STEERED
 KENNETH TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH IS
 BEING REPLACED BY A MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL TURN
 KENNETH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS
 SCENARIO...PLACING KENNETH JUST SOUTH OF A TIGHT BUNCH CONSENSUS
 AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. 
  
 KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
 FIRSTLY AS IT MOVES IN A STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT...AND SECONDLY AS
 IT MOVES INTO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER
 TROUGH. ALSO...SINCE KENNETH WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AS JOVA...
 IT MAY MOVE OVER COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
 JOVA. SOMETIME DURING DAY 4 AND DAY 5...KENNETH SHOULD BECOME A LOW
 LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND ASSUME A WESTWARD TRACK IN THE TRADE FLOW.
  
 FORECASTER CRAIG
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/0300Z 14.4N 141.4W    55 KT
  12HR VT     27/1200Z 14.8N 142.3W    50 KT
  24HR VT     28/0000Z 15.8N 143.7W    50 KT
  36HR VT     28/1200Z 16.9N 145.3W    45 KT
  48HR VT     29/0000Z 18.2N 147.0W    40 KT
  72HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N 150.6W    35 KT
  96HR VT     01/0000Z 21.2N 153.7W    30 KT
 120HR VT     02/0000Z 22.4N 156.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  
  
 $$