707 
 WTPA44 PHFO 262047
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
 11 AM HST MON SEP 26 2005
  
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE VARIOUS SATELLITE AGENCIES RANGED FROM
 3.0 TO 3.5...OR BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT. ON THE HIGH SIDE...AN AODT
 CALCULATION SUBMITTED BY PHFO CAME IN AT 4.5 OR 77 KT. ON THE LOW
 SIDE...A QUIKSCAT PASS HAD A SINGLE 40 KT WIND BARB. WILL STAY WITH
 A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT THIS TIME AROUND.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 230/5...WITH THE DOMINANT STEERING
 MECHANISM BEING A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. MODELS
 MOVE THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND REPLACE IT WITH A MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
 TROUGH BY 48 HOURS. KENNETH WILL ASSUME A NORTHWEST COURSE AS THE
 TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
 FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...PLACING KENNETH WITHIN A TIGHT BUNCH OF
 CONSENSUS AND DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
 KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
 FIRSTLY AS IT MOVES WITHIN A STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT...AND
 SECONDLY AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SOUTHEAST OF
 THE UPPER TROUGH. SOMETIME DURING DAY 4 AND DAY 5...KENNETH SHOULD
 BECOME A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND SHOULD ASSUME A WESTWARD TRACK
 IN THE TRADE FLOW.
 
 FORECASTER CRAIG
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/2100Z 14.5N 140.6W    60 KT
  12HR VT     27/0600Z 14.6N 141.4W    55 KT
  24HR VT     27/1800Z 15.4N 142.5W    55 KT
  36HR VT     28/0600Z 16.2N 143.8W    50 KT
  48HR VT     28/1800Z 17.1N 145.3W    45 KT
  72HR VT     29/1800Z 18.8N 148.7W    40 KT
  96HR VT     30/1800Z 20.1N 152.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     01/1800Z 21.2N 154.9W    25 KT
  
  
 $$