880 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 221451
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
 800 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2016
 
 Microwave data and first-light visible imagery indicate that the
 convection associated with Kay has become less organized, with the
 low-level center now lying near the southeast edge of the
 convective area. The initial intensity is decreased to 40 kt based
 mainly on a blend of subjective satellite intensity estimates from
 TAFB and SAB combined with the observed decay of the cloud pattern.
 
 The microwave data show that Kay turned westward during the night
 with the initial motion now 280/6.  A low- to mid-level ridge to
 the north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward to
 west-northwestward until dissipation.  The new forecast track,
 which lies near the model consensus, is shifted somewhat to the
 south of the previous track due to the current position and motion.
 
 Kay will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, which
 should cause a continued gradual weakening.  The new intensity
 forecast calls for the cyclone to become a depression in 24 hours
 or less, and for it to subsequently decay to a remnant low by 36
 hours.  The forecast also follows the global models in showing the
 system weakening to a trough after 72 hours.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/1500Z 22.0N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  23/0000Z 22.2N 118.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  23/1200Z 22.5N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  24/0000Z 22.9N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  24/1200Z 23.2N 122.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven