215 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 220841
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
 200 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2016
 
 Deep convection associated with Kay has decreased a little in both
 intensity and coverage during the last several hours, but the
 cyclone is maintaining a small central dense overcast feature.  The
 Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB are still 3.0/45 kt, and the
 initial wind speed is held at that value for this advisory.  Kay is
 nearing the 26-deg-C isotherm, and it will likely cross into those
 cooler waters later today.  These unfavorable oceanic conditions
 combined with a drier air mass along the expected track should cause
 a slow decay during the next couple of days.   Kay will likely
 degenerate into a remnant low pressure area when it moves over water
 temperatures below 25 deg C in 36 to 48 hours.  All of the global
 models show the system opening into a trough by Wednesday night, and
 the official forecast follows that guidance.
 
 Kay continues to move west-northwestward to northwestward at about
 7 kt as it is being steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast.
 A gradual turn to the left is expected during the next couple of
 days as Kay becomes shallower and is steered by the low-level trade
 wind flow.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one
 and lies fairly close to the various consensus aids.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/0900Z 22.2N 116.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  22/1800Z 22.5N 117.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  23/0600Z 22.8N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  23/1800Z 23.2N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  24/0600Z 23.5N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi