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 743 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 220231
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2016
 
 Kay's cloud pattern has shown little change in organization since
 earlier today.  The storm continues to produce very cold-topped
 deep convection over a small area near the center.  The upper-level
 outflow remains fairly symmetric, which is consistent with the
 low-shear environment.  The current intensity estimate is kept at
 45 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  Kay is
 currently over marginally warm SSTs, but should be moving over
 progressively cooler waters during the next day or two.  This,
 along with an increasingly less humid mid-level air mass, should
 cause weakening.  The official intensity forecast is very close
 to the latest intensity guidance consensus, IVCN.
 
 The storm continues to move west-northwestward, or around 300/6 kt.
 There are no significant changes to the track forecast or forecast
 reasoning.  Kay should continue to move along the southwestern
 periphery of a mid-level ridge for the next day or so.  By Tuesday,
 when the system should become a shallow cyclone, a turn toward the
 west following the low-level flow is anticipated.  The official
 track forecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance
 envelope.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/0300Z 21.8N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  22/1200Z 22.1N 116.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  23/0000Z 22.4N 118.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  23/1200Z 22.7N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  24/0000Z 23.0N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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