260 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 060230
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004
  
 KAY IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR WITH THE
 CENTER REMOVED FROM DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
 CIRCULATION.  T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE DROPPING AS FAST AS
 DVORAK RULES ALLOW.  GIVEN THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.
 
 LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE NORTHERLY WIND
 SHEAR PERSISTS.  HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL
 ABATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A COMEBACK. 
 THIS SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.  ALTERNATIVELY... THE
 DEPRESSION COULD SPIN DOWN INTO A REMNANT LOW AND BE ABSORBED INTO
 THE LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST.  
 
 SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A SHALLOW
 SYSTEM...MORE WEIGHT IS BEING PLACED ON THE BAMS MODEL WHICH IS
 OFTEN USEFUL FOR WEAK SYSTEMS.  THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
 RATHER POOR...CONSISTENTLY MOVING KAY SLOWLY AND TOO FAR TO THE
 SOUTH.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST AND BAMS.  
  
 FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/0300Z 15.5N 117.1W    25 KT
  12HR VT     06/1200Z 15.8N 118.3W    25 KT
  24HR VT     07/0000Z 16.1N 120.4W    25 KT
  36HR VT     07/1200Z 16.2N 122.4W    30 KT
  48HR VT     08/0000Z 16.3N 124.5W    30 KT
  72HR VT     09/0000Z 16.5N 128.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     10/0000Z 16.5N 131.5W    30 KT
 120HR VT     11/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W    30 KT
  
  
 $$