564 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 052018
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004
  
 ADDITIONAL VISIBLE IMAGES CONFIRM WHAT WAS SUSPECTED JUST AFTER
 RELEASE OF THE MORNING ADVISORY PACKAGE WAS RELEASED...THAT THE
 LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WAS BECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED FROM
 THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THAT AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
 DISSIPATED...AND KAY IS NOW A SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRL WITH A FEW NEW
 CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT ARE BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
 THE CENTER.  THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AT THIS
 TIME AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST...SHOWING NO CHANGE OVER
 THE PERIOD...REFLECTS THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER KAY WILL
 REGENERATE OR DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
 IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT KAY WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A LARGER AREA
 OF DISTURBED WEATHER...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
 WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THIS WEATHER AREA HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
 INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS WNW AT 10-11 KT.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND PRESUMES THAT KAY...IF IT
 SURVIVES...WILL BE STEERED MAINLY BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
 WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE. 
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/2100Z 15.2N 116.6W    30 KT
  12HR VT     06/0600Z 15.6N 118.2W    30 KT
  24HR VT     06/1800Z 15.7N 120.1W    30 KT
  36HR VT     07/0600Z 15.8N 121.8W    30 KT
  48HR VT     07/1800Z 15.9N 123.5W    30 KT
  72HR VT     08/1800Z 16.0N 127.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     09/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     10/1800Z 16.0N 132.5W    30 KT
  
  
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