315 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 050220
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2004
  
 THE DEPRESSION HAS AN ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE WITH CONVECTION ONLY IN
 THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THIS PATTERN IS DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY
 SHEAR CAUSING A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED CENTER.  DESPITE THE SHEAR...
 EARLIER CIMSS/CIRA AMSU ANALYSES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS NEAR
 TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THOUGH THERE IS NO SUPPORT IN THE DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ANY AGENCY.  THE DEPRESSION IS KEPT AT 30 KT
 WITH ALL INDICATIONS TOWARD IT BECOMING A STORM OVERNIGHT.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE WESTERLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...
 280/13.  GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH THE
 UKMET/NOGAPS POORLY INITIALIZING THE CENTER AND THE GFS/GFDL HAVING
 MUCH TOO SLOW OF AN INITIAL MOTION.  HOWEVER A STRONG MIDDLE-LEVEL
 RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
 KEEPING IT MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD.  A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE
 PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ABOUT 500 N MI TO THE WEST-
 SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  IF THIS DISTURBANCE WERE TO DEVELOP
 IT COULD INDUCE A MOTION A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH OF WHAT IS
 CURRENTLY FORECAST.  FOR NOW THE TRACK FORECAST WILL STAY SIMILAR
 TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE... ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE FAST BAMS SUITE
 AND THE MUCH SLOWER GFDL/GFS MODELS.  
 
 MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR ABOUT
 36-48 HOURS DUE TO AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF
 THE DEPRESSION.  SHIPS SLOWLY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM AND THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS.  TOWARD THE END OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WHICH COULD ALLOW
 FOR MORE STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF TRACK
 GUIDANCE AND OVERALL UNCERTAINTY...ONLY A MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS
 SHOWN...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
  
 FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/0300Z 14.1N 113.4W    30 KT
  12HR VT     05/1200Z 14.3N 115.2W    35 KT
  24HR VT     06/0000Z 14.5N 117.0W    40 KT
  36HR VT     06/1200Z 14.5N 118.8W    45 KT
  48HR VT     07/0000Z 14.5N 120.7W    45 KT
  72HR VT     08/0000Z 14.5N 124.5W    50 KT
  96HR VT     09/0000Z 14.5N 128.5W    55 KT
 120HR VT     10/0000Z 14.5N 132.5W    55 KT
  
  
 $$