026 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 042026
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2004
 
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOW THAT A
 LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED IN
 ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISTURBED WEATHER AREA TO THE SOUTH OF CABO
 SAN LUCAS.  THERE IS ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE CENTER IS
 CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONVECTION...TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO
 A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
 INFLUENCED BY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...SO ONLY SLOW
 STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
 
 THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMPLE AT THIS TIME.  A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE...SO A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST. 
 HOWEVER...ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SITUATED ABOUT 500 N MI TO
 THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION COULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE
 STEERING.  IF THIS IS CONFIRMED...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
 TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY. 
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/2100Z 13.9N 112.0W    30 KT
  12HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N 113.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     05/1800Z 14.5N 116.0W    40 KT
  36HR VT     06/0600Z 14.5N 118.0W    45 KT
  48HR VT     06/1800Z 14.5N 120.0W    45 KT
  72HR VT     07/1800Z 14.5N 124.0W    50 KT
  96HR VT     08/1800Z 14.5N 128.0W    55 KT
 120HR VT     09/1800Z 14.5N 132.0W    55 KT
  
  
 $$