364 
 WTNT42 KNHC 292055
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005
  
 KATRINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
 UNFORTUNATELY...THERE HAVE BEEN NO OFFICIAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
 NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  BASED ON WSR-88D
 DOPPLER VELOCITIES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 65
 KT...HOWEVER THIS IS ADMITTEDLY A CRUDE ESTIMATE SINCE THE INLAND
 RATIO OF SURFACE WINDS TO VELOCITIES ALOFT IS NOT WELL DOCUMENTED. 
 THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS A WEAKENING RATE THAT IS MORE OR LESS
 CONSISTENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE.  KATRINA IS FORECAST TO
 WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW STORM
 STRENGTH SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING.  BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM NEARS
 THE GREAT LAKES...IT SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. 
 KATRINA'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT IS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED BY
 ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER CANADA LATER IN THE PERIOD.
  
 KATRINA HAS ACCELERATED A LITTLE MORE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
 360/16.  THE PRIMARY STEERING CURRENT IS BEING PROVIDED THE FLOW
 BETWEEN A LARGE EASTWARD-MOVING LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN
 GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST.
 THIS STEERING SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE
 NORTHEAST...AND ACCELERATE SOME MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
  
 EVEN THROUGH THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF STRONG INLAND
 WINDS WILL REMAIN INTO THIS EVENING.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE
 POTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE DUE TO FALLING TREES.  INLAND FLOODING WILL
 ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/2100Z 31.9N  89.6W    65 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     30/0600Z 34.2N  89.0W    45 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     30/1800Z 37.2N  87.3W    30 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     31/0600Z 40.5N  83.4W    25 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     31/1800Z 44.0N  78.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     01/1800Z 50.0N  70.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     02/1800Z 53.0N  67.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     03/1800Z...ABSORBED
  
 $$