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 792 
 WTNT42 KNHC 050236
 TCDAT2
  
 HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011
 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2011
  
 AFTER KATIA STRENGTHENED STEADILY EARLIER TODAY...THE
 INTENSIFICATION PROCESS APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED FOR NOW. THE
 CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS SYMMETRIC SINCE THE
 LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS LOCATED OVER THE
 SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH AN EYE IS EASILY SEEN IN
 MULTI-CHANNEL NIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY...IT IS ONLY OCCASIONALLY
 EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGES. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
 TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 90 KT...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT
 THAT VALUE.
 
 THE HURRICANE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
 PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. 
 DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
 WESTWARD AS A TROUGH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE UNITED STATES WEAKENS.
 THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW KATIA TO CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK
 WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND THREE DAYS...KATIA
 IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
 FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER
 THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF
 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA IN FOUR TO
 FIVE DAYS...AND THAT COULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN
 NORTHEASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE EAST THIS CYCLE...ESPECIALLY AT 120
 HOURS...BUT LIES WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THE CURRENT
 TREND TOWARD A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION CONTINUES IN THE
 GUIDANCE...FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT DIRECTION WOULD BE REQUIRED.
 
 ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF KATIA HAS LEVELED OFF THIS EVENING...THE
 HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS AS IT REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
 ENVIRONMENTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE THREE TO FIVE DAY
 RANGE AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO A REGION WITH LOWER VALUES OF
 OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND PERHAPS INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AND IS NEAR
 A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. 
 
 LONG-PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH KATIA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
 PARTS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. EVEN IF KATIA DOES
 NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE UNITED STATES...THE THREAT FOR HIGH SURF
 AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST COAST BEACHES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
 OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  05/0300Z 23.4N  61.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  05/1200Z 24.4N  62.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  06/0000Z 25.7N  64.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  06/1200Z 26.9N  65.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  07/0000Z 28.0N  66.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
  72H  08/0000Z 30.3N  69.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
  96H  09/0000Z 33.5N  71.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 120H  10/0000Z 36.0N  69.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
  
 
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