595 
 WTNT42 KNHC 302040
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011
 500 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2011
  
 KATIA CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH
 INCREASING CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND WELL-DEFINED BANDING
 FEATURES.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE
 NORTH...WEST...AND SOUTH OF THE STORM.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY...
 AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT.  KATIA WILL BE MOVING
 OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28 DEG C AND IN A LOW SHEAR
 ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING APPEARS
 TO BE LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
 STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION...285/17...IS ONLY A LITTLE FASTER THAN IN THE
 PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE TRACK FORECAST AND FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ARE
 BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  KATIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE
 NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKNESS
 IN THE RIDGE PRODUCED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
 EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN
 FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SOUTH OF THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.
 
 THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ON THE BASIS OF AN ASCAT PASS FROM
 EARLIER TODAY.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  30/2100Z 12.7N  35.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  31/0600Z 13.3N  37.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  31/1800Z 14.1N  41.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  01/0600Z 14.9N  44.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  01/1800Z 15.7N  47.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  02/1800Z 17.5N  52.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  03/1800Z 19.5N  56.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 120H  04/1800Z 21.5N  60.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH