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 291 
 WTNT42 KNHC 120238
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
 1100 PM AST WED NOV 11 2015
 
 Kate continues to undergo extratropical transition. Satellite
 imagery show that Kate's cloud pattern has become increasingly
 elongated and asymmetric since the last advisory due to strong
 westerly shear. The cloud pattern has also taken on a comma-shape
 appearance, typically a precursor to frontogenesis and a completion
 of extratropical transition.  The initial intensity is lowered to 60
 kt, based on a blend of Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  A mid-
 to upper-level trough is forecast to merge with Kate in about 12
 hours or so, which should result in Kate's becoming post-tropical.
 After this occurs, baroclinic forcing from the trough should allow
 the post-tropical cyclone to maintain its intensity or perhaps even
 re-strengthen as indicated in the global models through about 24
 hours.  Beyond this time, a slow decay is forecast, with the post-
 tropical cyclone predicted to lose its identity in about 3 days
 when a new baroclinic development over the far north Atlantic
 becomes more dominant.  The new intensity forecast represents an
 update of the previous one, with dissipation now shown a day sooner.
 
 Kate continues to move rapidly east-northeastward but appears to
 have slowed down some, and the initial motion estimate is 065/36.
 As a post-tropical cyclone, Kate's motion is forecast to decrease
 further during the next during 24 hours while it merges with the
 extratropical system to the west.  A new and potent shortwave
 trough reaching Atlantic Canada in 2 to 3 days should then cause
 Kate to accelerate east-northeastward to northeastward until
 dissipation. The new track forecast is generally slower relative
 to the previous one, consistent with the multi-model consensus.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/0300Z 40.1N  52.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  12/1200Z 41.2N  50.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  24H  13/0000Z 42.2N  46.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  13/1200Z 43.1N  43.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  14/0000Z 45.3N  37.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  15/0000Z 53.8N  22.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain
 
 
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