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 094 
 WTNT42 KNHC 100856
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
 400 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
 
 Kate's convective structure hasn't changed much from the previous
 advisory.  The center is located beneath a small central dense
 overcast with broken banding over the northeastern quadrant.  The
 initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of Dvorak numbers
 of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB.  A NOAA P-3
 aircraft recently reached Kate, and on its first pass through the
 center it reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 45 kt and
 surface winds between 40-45 kt.  In addition, the central pressure
 has fallen to 1003 mb.  The plane will be making a few more passes
 through the center during the next couple of hours.
 
 Although vertical shear is forecast to increase during the next
 couple of days and Kate will be moving over water colder than 26C
 within the next 12-24 hours, all of the reliable intensity models
 indicate that the cyclone should strengthen and reach hurricane
 strength by 36 hours, if not sooner.  After 36 hours, the shear is
 expected to increase to nearly 50 kt, which should cause Kate to
 become post-tropical.  One significant change on this cycle is that
 the 00Z GFS, UKMET, Canadian, and to some extent the ECMWF now show
 Kate becoming the dominant low pressure area over the north Atlantic
 in a few days instead of being absorbed by a separate extratropical
 low.  Therefore, the updated NHC is now extended beyond 48 hours,
 showing Kate as a growing extratropical low over the north Atlantic
 on days 3-5.
 
 Kate is accelerating northward with an initial motion of 010/15 kt.
 The cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward and east-northeastward
 and accelerate further through Wednesday as it becomes embedded in
 the mid-latitude westerlies.  Kate is likely to slow down around
 day 3 when it becomes extratropical, but it should resume a faster
 northeastward motion toward the far north Atlantic on days 4 and 5.
 The new NHC track forecast is primarily an update of the previous
 forecast through 48 hours, and the extended extratropical portion
 beyond day 3 is generally a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/0900Z 28.8N  75.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  10/1800Z 31.0N  73.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  11/0600Z 33.9N  68.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  11/1800Z 36.6N  60.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  12/0600Z 39.2N  54.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  13/0600Z 43.0N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  14/0600Z 46.0N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  15/0600Z 53.0N  27.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
 
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