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 955 
 WTNT42 KNHC 251434
 TCDAT2
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016
 
 While Karl was producing a large shield of deep convection earlier,
 the convective tops have since warmed substantially and decreased in
 coverage. The cyclone's cloud pattern resembles a baroclinic leaf,
 which is the typical satellite signature of a system that has become
 a frontal wave.  The leading edge of a stratocumulus cloud deck,
 indicative of cold-air advection, is also encroaching on the
 low-level center.  Based on these developments and FSU Phase Space
 diagrams that already show the cyclone as cold core, Karl is being
 declared an extratropical cyclone. The initial intensity estimate is
 held at 60 kt in agreement with earlier Global Hawk sonde data and
 the cyclone's rapid translational speed.  Global models show Post-
 Tropical Karl being absorbed by a larger extratropical storm over
 the North Atlantic after about 24 hours.
 
 A series of earlier microwave images showed that the center was
 rapidly becoming deformed due to nearly 50 kt of southwesterly
 shear.  Since this has made finding the location of the low-level
 center difficult, the initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain
 055/42.  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to accelerate a bit
 further toward the northeast and then turn north-northeast before
 losing its identity.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  25/1500Z 39.9N  47.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  12H  26/0000Z 45.0N  39.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  24H  26/1200Z 52.5N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  27/0000Z...ABSORBED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain
 
 
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